Henri Jokiharju's contract negotiation may set stage for Sabres' offseason (2024)

High-ranking members of the Buffalo Sabres’ hockey operations department were asked for their opinions on Bowen Byram in the days leading up to the trade deadline in March.

Byram is the type of defenseman the Sabres had been trying to acquire for two years.

He is a poised 22-year-old under contract for next season with a Stanley Cup on his résumé, an ability to contribute offensively, limitless potential at a marquee position and, though the 2019 first-round draft pick is left-handed, he has shown that he can play on the right side.

“Bo is everything I look for in a defenseman,” Sabres General Manager Kevyn Adams said after he completed the trade that brought Byram to Buffalo and sent pending restricted free agent center Casey Mittelstadt to the Colorado Avalanche.

Managers across the league are envious of the Sabres’ defense corps. Byram will develop in the NHL alongside No. 1 draft picks Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, and their gifts with the puck are complemented by the throwback style of play that Mattias Samuelsson brings when he is healthy. Each of the four is left-handed, though, and the rehiring of Lindy Ruff as coach raises more questions about how the team plans to build its defense depth chart next season.

The most glaring question of all is how Henri Jokiharju fits in the Sabres’ plans next season and beyond. He is a restricted free agent after he produced three goals with a career-high 20 points in 74 games. His 18:59 average time on ice per game was lower than each of the previous two seasons, but there were bouts with inconsistency as he gradually improved in the defensive zone.

Jokiharju, 24, is right-handed, a valuable skill set for a club with more than three capable left-handed options, and the salary he is seeking will not hinder the Sabres’ ability to spend this summer. However, only four of the other 31 teams in the NHL are committing more cap space next season to defense: Tampa Bay, Vegas, Columbus and Ottawa. Will Adams pay Jokiharju or trade him to address another need on Buffalo’s roster?

“We’ll see what happens,” Jokiharju told reporters after former coach Don Granato’s firing in April. “But, of course, I’ll be more than happy to continue playing here. So, I think that’s how I look at it, but you know, this is business, so we’ll see what happens.”

The Sabres are projected to have $23.218 million in cap space for next season, according to CapFriendly.com, and $26.533 million of their spending is allocated to five defensem*n: Dahlin, Power, Byram, Samuelsson and Connor Clifton.

It is possible that none of their six NHL unrestricted free agents – Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson, Eric Robinson and Eric Comrie – will return next season. But the Sabres will have to pay goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen after his breakout season. Luukkonen, 25, may count as much as $5.5 million against their salary cap, plus Adams plans to add an experienced center to bolster the team’s depth at the position after it lost Mittelstadt. The bottom six is expected to receive a facelift as the Sabres try to become a playoff-caliber team.

There still will be enough money to sign Jokiharju if the Sabres decide to trade for a third-line center. AFP Analytics, a Rochester-based consulting firm, projects Jokiharju to receive a three-year contract with a $4.016 million average annual value, or a one-year pact for $3.328 million. Does the team want to spend that much on a player who may be on the third pair and was not among its top contributors on special teams last season?

Jokiharju was among the Sabres who helped the team improve their penalty kill from 28th in 2022-23 to 13th this season, but he ranked ninth in total short-handed ice time. He won’t have to fill in on the power play, either, now that Buffalo has Byram to complement Dahlin and Power.

Teams will be interested in Jokiharju because of his ability to break pressure to help his team exit the defensive zone, and he has become a better defender. He won’t use brute force to thwart an opponent’s possession, but he has learned through 309 games across five seasons in Buffalo that stick positioning and gapping are pivotal to having success at the position. Jokiharju also has shown that he can skate on the top defense pair, though he logged more than 24 minutes in only three games this season.

The Sabres outscored opponents 14-12 and controlled 56.2% of the shot-quality share at 5-on-5 when Jokiharju was on the ice with Dahlin this season, according to Natural Stat Trick. The possession numbers were far worse when Jokiharju was with his most common defense partner, Power, as Buffalo had only 45.4% of the 5-on-5 shot attempts when they were paired this season. Overall, Jokiharju was plus-14 in 5-on-5 situations, despite having the third-most defensive-zone faceoffs on the team. He also ranked fourth on the team in blocked shots and ninth in hits.

There is risk in trading Jokiharju. Clifton is the lone right-shot defenseman under contract for 2024-25 and only one of their three defense prospects in Rochester, Vsevelod Komarov, is right-handed. Are the Sabres comfortable moving forward with Samuelsson, Power and Byram as options to skate next to Dahlin?

The Sabres have less than 50% of the 5-on-5 shot attempt differential and shot-quality share over the past two seasons with Dahlin next to Samuelsson, though the duo has only a minus-1 goal differential while shouldering the most difficult matchups among Buffalo’s pairs. Dahlin and Byram were outstanding together, at first, then the latter began to struggle late in the season as the coaching staff began to push him to follow their systems.

Granato used Dahlin and Power together for offensive-zone faceoffs or when the Sabres were down by a goal, but it is challenging to use them on a regular basis because it hurts the lineup’s depth and leaves the team susceptible on the road when the opposing team can exploit matchups. It is fair to wonder, though, if a different skill set is needed than the one Jokiharju provides. Samuelsson and Clifton are physical and possess a throwback style of play, but Ruff may prefer to add more grit at the position.

The Sabres may not have an NHL-ready defenseman with that skill set in Rochester next season, and organizational depth is pivotal for every playoff team. Komarov and Nikita Novikov are big, physical prospects at the position who should spend all of 2024-25 with the Amerks. Ryan Johnson appeared in 41 games with Buffalo as a rookie this season, however, he does not play with an edge and struggled throughout the Calder Cup playoff series against Syracuse. He is also left-handed and only 22 years old.

Jokiharju may be the Sabres’ best trade chip because he is an experienced right-shot defenseman with a relatively cheap contract. Prospects and draft picks may not be enough for Buffalo to add a third-line center who can be on the roster for multiple seasons. A team such as Philadelphia, for example, is more likely to want help for its NHL roster in exchange for center Scott Laughton. Replacing Jokiharju through free agency may be more expensive than his next contract, though, and trading for someone won’t be cheap, either.

The Sabres must decide whether Jokiharju’s usage under Ruff will merit a $4 million price tag. After all, he may be on the third defense pair at the start of the season if everyone is healthy. The team may prefer to target a cheaper option with playoff experience, though two veteran defensem*n they’ve targeted in each of the past two offseasons – Ilya Lyubushkin and Erik Johnson – struggled in Buffalo until they were traded elsewhere.

The Sabres and Jokiharju’s agent, J.P. Barry of CAA, plan to begin negotiations soon. Unrestricted free agency doesn’t begin until July 1. Trade talks increase leading up to the NHL draft on June 28-29 in Las Vegas. Jokiharju can file for salary arbitration if the two sides can’t come to an agreement. His contract situation may set the stage for a pivotal offseason in Buffalo.